The Shifting Balance of Power
For those who don't really follow our wonderful odd-shaped ball game, the country New Zealand is synonymous with the sport. New Zealand and the legendary All Blacks are generally considered to be the spiritual protectors of Rugby Union on a global scale. Yes, the English invented it, but it was the All Blacks that mastered it, and they are the only team in the world to have a win percentage of over 50% over every country they've ever played.
In all test matches against England the All Blacks have a 77% win rate, against Australia a 66% win rate. Only South Africa comes close to having an even ratio of wins to losses against them, but once again, the All Blacks nick it with a 56% success rate. So good are the All Blacks historically, that even continual World Cup underachievement cannot knock their aura of superiority. The best the rest of us can do is sneeringly call them RWC chokers and then grudgingly accept that the wearers of the mythical black shirt are in fact bloody good.
However... times be a-changing. This morning France beat the All Blacks at the House of Pain in Dunedin 22-27. It's not the first time the French have ever recorded a victory over New Zealand - they are in fact the closest thing the All Blacks have to a NH nemesis - but placed in the wider scheme of things it is indicative of a shifting balance of power. France are not a side good away from home. France of late have been blown even more variably hot and cold than usual. France of late are not the world class unit that they sometimes approach. But yet they beat the All Blacks in their back yard, at Carisbrook - one of the toughest stadiums for a visiting side anywhere in any sport. The result in isolation says nothing, but it is telling. The All Blacks have been ravaged by injury and exodus. More and more players have left New Zealand in search of fame and fortune and this morning's result is a touchstone for the state of affairs in the global game.
Once a country seemingly bursting with rugby talent has been stripped of some it's finest talent by the promise of money 'oop' north. They've failed to reproduce their historical dominance of the S14 in recent years, their premier 2009 franchise, the Waikato Chiefs were soundly whipped in the tournaments final and what was quite frankly one of the most talented rugby teams to ever play the game crashed out of the World Cup at the quarter-final stage.
For a brief period in and around 2003, England could call themselves the best team on the planet and few could disagree. Results proved it. They'd beaten all comers. In recent history however, they've been few instances where any team other than NZ could be considered the world's best. They've certainly been times when the issue was hotly debated, but other than the spell of England dominance in the run up to the 2003 RWC, the All Blacks have been there or there abouts. That invariable may be changing.
So who is taking up the reins? Who is the new overlord of world rugby? Unfortunately for the Lions, it looks to be their current hosts. South Africa have performed on pretty much every stage available over the last few years. Aside from the Tri-Nations where a brilliant win at Carisbrook was ruined by weak home performances at Newlands and Durban the Springboks have been marching inexorably towards the top.
In 2007, the Bulls met the Sharks in a pulsating Super 14 final and the Springboks became the second team to twice win the World Cup. This year the same team crushed the Chiefs 61-17 only a week after turning it on late in the 1st to blow the Canterbury Crusaders out of the water and, in Sevens, South Africa have turned perennial underachievement into genuine success with a comprehensive IRB Sevens Series win. South African rugby is in rude health.
As you may know, The British & Irish Lions are in town (!) and they're looking to well and truly spoil the party. They've got the challenge of a lifetime though as the Springboks have experience and talent in prodigious supply. The Lions seem to make a habit of turning up when the going's toughest. Four years ago, the Lions arrived in New Zealand to face one of the finest All Black sides to ever take the field. They were duly (sadly) smashed 3-0 in the test series, including a second test in Wellington where Dan Carter produced one of the most comprehensive fly-half performances of the modern era. It seems that the best way to get the maximum out of a national side is to schedule a Lions tour to visit. As an Englishman, I'm thinking of having a word with Martin Johnson about a couple of home Lions fixtures...
As a Lions supporter there is still reason to take heart. The balance of power in world rugby may have shifted relentlessly towards the Springboks, but the Lions of 2009 do have the makings of a better breed than their 2005 predecessors. Good wins in the run-up to the test series will mean little though, unless the Lions can turn the screw against the mighty Springboks. One things for sure, it's in everybody's interests that both Lions and Boks are at their best - it'll make for some scintillating Rugby.
In all test matches against England the All Blacks have a 77% win rate, against Australia a 66% win rate. Only South Africa comes close to having an even ratio of wins to losses against them, but once again, the All Blacks nick it with a 56% success rate. So good are the All Blacks historically, that even continual World Cup underachievement cannot knock their aura of superiority. The best the rest of us can do is sneeringly call them RWC chokers and then grudgingly accept that the wearers of the mythical black shirt are in fact bloody good.
However... times be a-changing. This morning France beat the All Blacks at the House of Pain in Dunedin 22-27. It's not the first time the French have ever recorded a victory over New Zealand - they are in fact the closest thing the All Blacks have to a NH nemesis - but placed in the wider scheme of things it is indicative of a shifting balance of power. France are not a side good away from home. France of late have been blown even more variably hot and cold than usual. France of late are not the world class unit that they sometimes approach. But yet they beat the All Blacks in their back yard, at Carisbrook - one of the toughest stadiums for a visiting side anywhere in any sport. The result in isolation says nothing, but it is telling. The All Blacks have been ravaged by injury and exodus. More and more players have left New Zealand in search of fame and fortune and this morning's result is a touchstone for the state of affairs in the global game.
Once a country seemingly bursting with rugby talent has been stripped of some it's finest talent by the promise of money 'oop' north. They've failed to reproduce their historical dominance of the S14 in recent years, their premier 2009 franchise, the Waikato Chiefs were soundly whipped in the tournaments final and what was quite frankly one of the most talented rugby teams to ever play the game crashed out of the World Cup at the quarter-final stage.
For a brief period in and around 2003, England could call themselves the best team on the planet and few could disagree. Results proved it. They'd beaten all comers. In recent history however, they've been few instances where any team other than NZ could be considered the world's best. They've certainly been times when the issue was hotly debated, but other than the spell of England dominance in the run up to the 2003 RWC, the All Blacks have been there or there abouts. That invariable may be changing.
So who is taking up the reins? Who is the new overlord of world rugby? Unfortunately for the Lions, it looks to be their current hosts. South Africa have performed on pretty much every stage available over the last few years. Aside from the Tri-Nations where a brilliant win at Carisbrook was ruined by weak home performances at Newlands and Durban the Springboks have been marching inexorably towards the top.
In 2007, the Bulls met the Sharks in a pulsating Super 14 final and the Springboks became the second team to twice win the World Cup. This year the same team crushed the Chiefs 61-17 only a week after turning it on late in the 1st to blow the Canterbury Crusaders out of the water and, in Sevens, South Africa have turned perennial underachievement into genuine success with a comprehensive IRB Sevens Series win. South African rugby is in rude health.
As you may know, The British & Irish Lions are in town (!) and they're looking to well and truly spoil the party. They've got the challenge of a lifetime though as the Springboks have experience and talent in prodigious supply. The Lions seem to make a habit of turning up when the going's toughest. Four years ago, the Lions arrived in New Zealand to face one of the finest All Black sides to ever take the field. They were duly (sadly) smashed 3-0 in the test series, including a second test in Wellington where Dan Carter produced one of the most comprehensive fly-half performances of the modern era. It seems that the best way to get the maximum out of a national side is to schedule a Lions tour to visit. As an Englishman, I'm thinking of having a word with Martin Johnson about a couple of home Lions fixtures...
As a Lions supporter there is still reason to take heart. The balance of power in world rugby may have shifted relentlessly towards the Springboks, but the Lions of 2009 do have the makings of a better breed than their 2005 predecessors. Good wins in the run-up to the test series will mean little though, unless the Lions can turn the screw against the mighty Springboks. One things for sure, it's in everybody's interests that both Lions and Boks are at their best - it'll make for some scintillating Rugby.
Tony Hart - Saturday 13th June 12.17AM
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