Tomorrow the Lions meet the Springboks for the 2nd Test in Pretoria. Arguably, it is the most important Lions game ever. A win keeps the dream alive, but a loss may just be the death knell for the Lions concept. I don't expect things to happen overnight, but there are some people - misguided people - who in this era of professional sport believe that the Lions tour is a concept that should have died with the amateur era. These people are clearly wrong, but that doesn't mean they don't have an influence.

If the Lions lose tomorrow's match, and consequently, the test series, the Lions won't have had a successful tour since 1997. For the good of the Lions, a competitive series is a must. Whether the Lions win or lose, I desperately hope that the tradition will live on indefinitely, but I'm enough of a realist to recognise that series loss after series loss is not the way to make the concept stick around. The Lions haven't won a test match since 30th June 2001 and it's time to turn things around. This current crop of Lions is, in my estimation, a formidable breed and it's time for them to find their roar. I take a look at how the Lions can beat the Boks.

Kicking Game

When Peter De Villiers announced his squad for the Lions series, one of the most controversial issues was the absence of a recognised test fullback. In the end, Frans Steyn slotted into the fullback role and his siege gun boot and ability to slot drop goals and penalties from within his own half made him an aggressive but potentially liable selection. Going into the game, it was my opinion that the Lions could have some considerable success by using a superior tactical kicking game to pin the Boks back within their own territory. Steyn is a utility back, and at this level his positional play can at times be suspect and while we'd never win by kicking the ball down his throat, the option was always there to kick into the space.

As it transpired, the Boks were clearly one step ahead of the game and never allowed the Lions the space to exploit behind. Rather than relying on just Steyn, the Springboks employed a blanket of sweepers to ensure that the space behind simply wasn't there. At times there were no less than 5 players back behind the Springbok line fielding kicks and ensuring that Jones and Byrne simply couldn't exploit space with astute tactical kicking. The premise was simple - don't allow the Lions space to kick into.

The problem was that the Lions didn't adapt. We lost the kicking game in the 1st test by trying to win kicking duels against a team with a enveloping sweeper system and the massive boot of Frans Steyn. At times the Springboks were committing considerable numbers to sweeping up kicks and in doing so, their first up defensive line was stretched thinner than it might have otherwise been. Tactically the Lions needed to be more 'heads-up' and respond to this. With so many players guarding against a tactical kicking game the Lions needed to change it up. Lee Byrne and Stephen Jones needed to attack the defensive line with ball in hand and utilise a defter kicking game of chips and grubbers to get in behind the main defensive operation.

Instead the Lions failed to adapt to this and ended up - particularly in the first half - kicking far too much ball directly into the arms of patient catchers. If the tactics the Springboks employed in the first test say anything, it tells us that they fear the Lions tactical kicking game. They simply weren't going to allow themselves to be exploited by raking kicks finding deep touchlines.

Going into the second test the Lions need to have a plan B for their kicking game. If the Boks send Spies and Pienaar back to cover the rear-areas with Pietersen, Steyn and Habana, the Lions need to hit the line hard and fast. If the Boks hold a 14 man defensive wall then Stephen Jones and Rob Kearney have to pin the Boks back with kicks to the corners. Either way the South Africans are only fielding 15 men at once and they can't be in two places at the same time. The Lions need to respond to what's happening in front of them. It's a shame that Byrne is out injured because his chip kicking running hard at the line is almost unparalleled in the world game and it would have served as the perfect antidote to an astute Bok strategy that effectively shut down the Lions territorial kicking game.

The 1st test was effectively lost by allowing kickable penalties in the wrong areas of the pitch. These stemmed from the scrum, but the territorial game that put the Boks deep in Lions territory is equally worrying. If the Lions had played a smarter kicking game and then conceded penalties on the Bok 22 rather than their own the trials and tribulations of Phil Vickery at scrum time would have been far less influential than they were.

Scrum

This was the obvious and most glaring problem after the first test. Back in 1997 the Springboks targeted the Lions scrum and in particular the small front row as their area of weakness. As anyone who has watched Living With Lions will know, the Lions decided to make their scrummaging an area of strength and beasted their scrum until they were a formidable unit. Come Test time, the Lions ability at the scrum was a real shock to the Boks. If the Boks talked up their pack in '97, the Lions and the media have been guilty of bravado and over-confidence this time around. In the scrum we were guilty of the old adage: pride comes before a fall.

The Lions were destroyed up front and simply gave away too many kickable penalties due to infringements in a buckling scrum. Having rewatched the tapes closely there are a number of things that contributed to the Lions demise in this area:

1. Bismark Du Plessis' bind on the Beast was high up under the prop's armpit. This was exactly where Vickery was trying to bind when taking the hit, and on a number of occasions his binding hand glanced off Du Plessis' bind. He would have done well to bind high on the shoulder or beyond Du Plessis but Vickery looked stuck for a solution. By contrast, Lee Mears who is significantly shorter than Vickery was holding a bind halfway down the English props back. Consequently Mtawarira had no such trouble finding a free piece of shirt to latch onto.

2. The Lions locks weren't putting anything like the power that the Springboks were into the hit. Come the contact, Vickery was not getting the same degree of hit on as his opposite number and it never allowed him to achieve a powerful scrummaging position. He begun each scrum on the back foot.

3. At times the Beast was driving anything but straight. It's not an excuse, but simply what happened. While the hit was straight, the subsequent power bore into the feed channel rather than coming on square.

Many have been calling for the replacement of Lee Mears for his role in the scrum disaster. I for one do not agree with this assessment. While Vickery was thoroughly roughed-up at scrum time, Adam Jones' introduction came prior to Mears' substitution. They scrummed once together before the hooker was replaced and everything went tickety-boo. In modern test rugby, the lineout tends to be a far more influential part of the game than the scrum and for my money I think Matthew Rees' introduction for the second test is a mistake. He played a blinder last Saturday and his throwing at the lineout was solid, but in my assessment this was as out of character as Mears' few overthrows. Rees' has been plauged by poor throwing at the lineout and with Matfield and co. poaching like this is Danny Champion of the World I for one don't see him having another so successful outing.

While I respect a coaching staff that picks on form, Mears had been one of the standout forwards of the tour so far and while he did get two of his lineouts wrong, the statistics show that once you get over the hype, he didn't have a bad game at the lineout. The Lions won 9 of their own throws and lost 3. These are not bad lineout stats against South Africa. Despite running down a blind alley on one occasion, Mears is a much more mobile prop than Rees and has wonderful handling skills. He provided a lovely pass for Wallace to scythe through in the first half and it's my view that his exclusion from the test 22 is excessively knee-jerk.

I vehemently hope Matthew Rees plays a blinder and the Lions management don't regret this decision.

Take MORE Than The Positives

After a ropey start, the Lions ended up having a centre field-day that lasted from about 20 mins to the games conclusion. Jamie Roberts and Brian O'Driscoll both looked genuinely world class, and were more than a handful for the Springbok defensive system. Following the game, most Lions players produced the usual post-game rhetoric that we've become so used to in modern rugby. "We've got to take the positives" and "build upon our performance" and "look at what worked and what didn't".

The Springboks are clearly the best team in world rugby at the moment and they will react to the shortcomings of their game in the first test. Their defence will be stronger and while PdV has chosen to retain the somewhat crocked Adi Jacobs, you can bet your bottom dollar that they'll be sharper in their defensive pattern. While I still expect Roberts and Drico to be a considerable handful, the Lions will lose if our game plan is simply to do more of the same. If we plan to win the ball, give it to them and expect them to cut the Boks to pieces single handedly, the Lions will lose. There. I've said it.

The Lions need to be one-step ahead of the curve and not settle for anything less than total rugby. With Tommy Bowe's heroics of earlier in the tour somewhat forgotten after the 1st Test loss, the Emerging Boks draw and the performance of the centres last Saturday, now is the time to utilise a full range of attacking options. While BOD and Roberts are likely to be heavily marked the Lions must react to this and prepare a gameplan that goes beyond the 1st Test. The Boks will fear our centre pairing, so their threat as decoy runners is all the more valuable.

Likewise, the Lions need to be willing to move the ball and make use of the openside more readily. Going blind is fine if the aim is to draw in defenders and create space for a subsequent attack towards the openside, but it's crucial that at the breakdown prior to changing tack and running the ball open the ball provided is quick. Snappy ball at this point doesn't allow the defence to reconfigure and it's vital if the Lions want to keep probing the blindside.

Going blind does however limit the amount of ball that the centre pairing will receive. While they're going to be granted less space than in the first test, they must still be given plenty of opportunity with ball in hand. South African rugby has basically so far failed entirely to stop Jamie Roberts in full flow, and while I don't wish to jinx him, he must be allowed to carry ball. His greatest threat is when he's made the half break. He's wonderful at distributing out of the tackle once he's busted open a gap but the Lions must vary the lines and runners they pivot off him.

The use of the bench also has to be smart. Playing at altitude after arriving late in Pretoria this evening, the Lions superior fitness is likely to be somewhat negated. With players like Martyn Williams on the bench, I'd like to see Geech introduce them after maybe only 45-50 mins. Williams and Wallace are not akin to Botha and Bekker. Botha is twice the player Bekker is, whereas Williams and Wallace are both excellent players who in actuality aren't as different as some would have us believe. The Lions will benefit from allowing players like this play 50 mins of uber intense rugby rather than letting legs get tired and the pace drop off. Coaches have become far too obsessed with changes on 60 and often 65 mins. At this late stage of a game these sorts of replacements are often too late, too negative and don't allow players time to really find their rhythm. A bolder move would be to replace three players on 50 mins - the intention being to really stretch the Boks and maximise the Lions fitness.

Like I said at the top of the article, tomorrow is the Lions most important game for 25 years. Above all they have to want it really really badly. It's going to hurt and there are going to be some battered and exhausted bodies come the final whistle, but if they play out of their skin and get some of the points above right I believe hey have the calibre to give themselves a chance.

C'Mon Lions, It's Do or Die!!!!