Replacement Options

Tómas O’Leary was the first, followed by Tom Shanklin this weekend. Meanwhile Alan Quinlan faces a disciplinary panel next Wednesday regarding an apparent gouging incident in Munster’s Heineken Cup loss to Leinster. The two injured players have already been ruled out and in all probability Quinlan will lose his place too. Which players will be at the top of the list to fill the boots of the departed?

Scrum-Half

The loss of Tómas O’Leary is arguably the most difficult for the coaching staff to fill from a ‘like-for-like’ perspective. Given the initial selection, clearly a choice was made to take large, powerful scrum-halves. Of the available options, the three bulkiest most robust players were chosen. Out-right bullocks like Phillips and O’Leary, and the larger than average Harry Ellis. However, with O’Leary out of the frame, there isn’t another ‘large’ scrum-half to take his place.

Looking at that initial selection, Ian McGeechan has clearly decided that the battle of the breakdown is going to be key in South Africa. Good assessment I’d say - it nearly always is. Phillips in particular has the bulk and power of a decent blind-side flanker and there is a mentality that treats a player of that physique as having the secondary role of back-row backup. A fourth man if you will.

The options available now really don’t fit with this mould. Casting the net far and wide you come back with Peter Stringer, Mike Blair, Chris Cusiter, Dwayne Peel and Danny Care. Although the Lions management have so far kept their cards very close to their chests with this one, I’d suggest that Blair, Peel and Care are significantly ahead of Stringer and Cusiter.

Looking at form, you end up at Danny Care. He doesn’t have Blair or Peel’s experience, but he’s been playing well for Harlequins all season and though he has shown his poor decision making in an England shirt from time to time (that push...) he has the best form. McGeechan has talked often about picking on form and so this should count for a lot. He also adds something genuinely different; lighting acceleration and a finishers instinct.

Phillips was the front runner to start the tests and he remains so, but I think they’ll end up picking Care for the empty spot. I think Blair, given his spectacular form just a few months ago, his leadership and his ability to play behind a less than perfect platform is also an outside bet, but for my money I’d like to see Peel get the nod. He brings a much needed clinical edge to the Lions scrum-half division and though he hasn’t done much of late, I think the occasional class over form selection is one that can be justified.

Whichever of these three gets the nod, I think the jersey will be in safe hands.

Centre

Tom Shanklin is one of those players underated by many. On the other hand some can’t sing his praises high enough and have had him as a test starter since discussion begun. There’s no doubt that his loss is a high-profile one. He’s an experienced player that on his day can really shine.

The remaining options are somewhat less clear cut than the open scrum-half berth where there is a relative abundance of outstanding players. Shanklin has played most of his rugby at outside centre, so to some extent it follows that a 13 is most likely to replace him. That said, most of the following names will probably find themselves discussed in Lions management circles over the coming days. Gordon D’Arcy, Mike Tindall, Delon Armitage, Matthew Tait, James Hook, Nicky Robinson, Max Evans and Jordan Turner-Hall will have all be considered. Yes, the list is long, still more outside names could be mentioned like Hipkiss and Henson.

In reality though, I think that most of these names will be fairly quickly crossed out. It really comes down to what the coaches are looking for. In the like for like camp, D’Arcy and Tindall stand clear. Add to this that they’re both experienced players with reasonable recent form and they are the obvious front runners.

While Hook and Robinson’s would be a reassessment of the ‘take only two fly-halves’ decision, Hook in particular offers options at 12. In reality though a selection like this only serves to weaken the squad in one area (13) while strengthening it in another (10). Neither of these two will be called up at this stage.

Delon Armitage looks to be the third front runner based on his exceptional recent form and his utility. He can play on the wing at full-back and in the centre and offers an excellent kicking option also. I think he’ll join D’Arcy and Tindall at the top of the list.

Finally you reach the other names - Tait, Evans and Turner-Hall. Any of these selections would be a big call. Evans and Turner-Hall have really had breakthrough seasons, particularly when you look at Turner-Hall’s form for Quins, but either way you’d be selecting inexperienced players. Tait by contrast though only around the fringes of the current England squad has a decent level of experience under his belt and has regularly impressed when given the chances at the highest level. While Evans and Turner-Hall are very much in my ‘unlikely’ category, Tait is in the ‘inspired selection’ category. He’d be my wild card, not least because despite what England and Sale try and do with him he’s a proper 13 and tends to produce the goods when it’s needed.

So, who will it be? Well, I think D’Arcy and Armitage are probably the likely picks, but I’ll have my fingers crossed that McGeechan picks Tait. Let’s be honest, save for injury, god forbid, the no.13 test jersey has already been allocated. If things go to plan the player selected will not be lining up in any of the three tests. While all are great choices, for me, Tait has the pace and incision and deserves to be given a real chance.

Back Row

Unlike Shanklin and O’Leary, Alan Quinlan still has a chance of touring. The reality is pretty slim though given the harsh line typically taken by citing panels regarding any suggestion of gouging. Quinlan is essentially a blindside flanker though he has been known to play all over the back-row and even occasionally as a lock. If he is banned, one name is quite simply way ahead of the pack*.

Tom Croft was the most surprising omission from the original Lions squad and has since performed brilliantly in the simply crazy Leicester v Blues match and even been talked up as ‘very unlucky’ by the management team themselves. If Quinlan is banned, I simply can’t see past Tom Croft. While the list for the centre berth is long and winding, the options seem much much clearer in the back row. Ryan Jones is a possible, but given the way Gatland and Edwards have talked about their Welsh captain, they don’t seem currently hold him in the esteem required. Also, he has deputised as a flanker, but he’s really an eight and his game has declined with lack of time playing there.

A few other names are probably on Ian McGeechan’s possibles list, people like James Haskell and possibly even Denis Leamy, but I’ll be incredulous if Tom Croft isn’t named in the event of Quinlan missing out.

This might all come across as a set of England heavy replacements. I expect Care at scrum-half though I’d just nudge Peel and while the Centre berth is still wide open, I’d prefer to see Tait over the other possibles. I make no apologies for this and have mentioned this before. It comes down not to any sort of national bias, but rather the reality of having a large player body. Ireland and Wales clearly have the most outstanding players at present, but England have a lot of good players and that is key. The outstanding player is most probably Welsh or Irish, but the next best player is more often than not English.

*Awful pun not intended.

Replacement Options

Tony Hart - 18:20 8th May 2009